Compliments of the season 🙂 <3
The pace at which innovation driven disruption are happening right now is astonishing; two years into the exciting decade and so much is beginning to unfold. The change we are experiencing right now seems structural and in its infancy.
As an early gift from Onyx Africa to you- we’ve decided to begin 2022 with a complimentary issue covering some of the most popular as well as controversial takes and how we believe some things will unravel in the new year.
This issue touches on a broad spectrum of ideas ranging from The Economy and Politics, Lifestyle and Healthcare, Tech, Crypto, Africa as well as Popular Culture.
The Economy and Politics
· Inflation isn’t transitory
It’s become very clear now that inflation is here to stay and isn’t “transitory”. The little things like panic buying in the beginning of the pandemic and the greater economic shocks like supply chain constraints in almost every industry due to the COVID-19 pandemic had repercussions. Central banks added the cherry on top of the cake triggered by the government handouts (haha money printer go brrrrr!) – more money means a greater disposable income for the consumer, more economic activity due to increased spending by the consumer with more money, in-turn higher prices (inflation) due to increased demand for goods and services. This coupled with the very uncertain interest rate environment make it very difficult to view inflation as being transitory, trying to help the masses by printing more money usually has unintended long-term consequences.
Where to from here? The prices of general goods and services are going to continue to rise however that also means the price of labor (wages and salaries) rises in-line with the increase in the cost of living. It’s a vicious cycle!
There’s an interesting plot twist though – OIL!
The transition to renewable sources of energy is happening very quickly. More and more people are concerned by their carbon footprint which has made them more conscious consumers, this is accelerating the adoption of renewable sources of energy globally and fall of oil.
We’re tired of being abused by OPEC (legal international cartel allowed to price-fix oil) – the sharp surge in oil prices breaking three-year highs could be attributed to OPEC oil production cuts; a clear indication of the beginning of the end for oil.
You remember I said labor prices increase due to inflation, imagine if labor became capital through the automation of repetitive human tasks; the cost of labor becomes non-existent and in-turn prices drop substantially.
Let’s see…Uhm…Long story short…When the chickens finally come home to roost, new technologically enabled innovations, eventually create this super deflationary environment in the super long term; we’ll begin to properly notice this trend in 2022 as these companies begin to showcase their prowess and shift traditional business models.
· The rise of Emerging Markets
§ Remote Work destinations
The rise of work from home and digital nomads has led to a rise in destinations that seemed less popular in the past. Countries with a decent cost and standard of living, vibrant work spaces, great internet connection, fair tax and visa regulations, a low crime rate and a bit touristy are beginning to experience a surge in economic activity due to increased online work. It’s really crazy how way fewer smart people care about the Silicon Valleys of this world or even big tech companies. My top five bets for cities that will join elite international remote work destinations in 2022 are Kigali, Rwanda; Lusaka, Zambia; Cairo, Egypt; Cape Town, South Africa; and Lagos, Nigeria.
§ India and Indians
“Moderately bullish on India, extremely bullish on Indians”
– Balaji Srinivasan (@balajis) on Twitter.
The impact and influence that Indian people have had globally in the last few years cannot go unnoticed. Alphabet (Google’s parent company) and Microsoft are amongst the largest tech companies in the world and they are both run by Indian people, 30% of the Fortune 500 companies have Indian CEOs, CEOs of 10% of the world’s largest tech companies are Indian people and to top that all of Parag Agrawal, the new CEO of Twitter (one of the largest social networking sites) is an Indian.
The likes of a Vandana Shiva (environmental activist/Indian scholar/ecofeminist/food sovereignty advocate and anti-globalization author) and her brigade being able to consistently take on big and influential individuals, such as Bill Gates, goes to show the amount of influence that Indian people are able to gain globally. This can only mean that Indian people are able to get their points across and communicate very effectively; they seem to have a hardworking culture and a striving nature to thrive – Indian people are amongst the most educated globally. They are knowledgeable and capable of executing at the highest level. Watchout!
The current geopolitical landscape presents India with a great opportunity to disrupt the current status-quo and become a global elite. India isn’t well positioned to disrupt manufacturing or lead as a tech hub; China has an insatiable lead in production due to their low labor costs and the U.S. still manage to attract some of the brightest individuals globally into their tech ecosystem. In a world characterized mainly by production, software and content, I believe India is the best positioned country to take on the latter if they focus on media. Indian people are creative, they have a vibrant meme culture, are extremely smart and hardworking (traits that are very important for the consistent release of valuable content). Although India isn’t a popular destination, in 2022 India may have the potential to position itself as a media superpower!
· Value Traps
The S&P500 is a stock market index that tracks the performance of 500 large U.S. companies listed on the New York Stock Exchange or NASDAQ. The S&P500 is the most popular benchmark and represents beta (the market). The addition of Tesla to the S&P500 in the last quarter of 2020 raised a major red flag. It entered the S&P500 as the sixth largest US company by market capitalization – becoming the largest addition in the market indexes history in terms of rank and market capitalization. This raises a red flag due to the fact that its addition was long overdue and the committee should’ve noticed Tesla’s importance earlier. At that point Tesla’s valuation equaled the market capitalization of the 9 largest automakers, indicating a clear misalignment of value and a lack of understanding of Tesla’s potential. This trend is noticeable in almost every industry. Incumbents still represent most of the market and it’s not an accurate representation of the true value being created due to the new innovation driven companies being at the forefront.
There’s a great likelihood that innovation driven companies will consistently be more volatile than the market because of these value traps. In order for the S&P500 to accurately represent the market it needs a proper revamp.
I’ll be a little optimistic and expect the committee at Standard & Poor’s to identify these value traps and add quite a few new innovations driven companies into the market index and replace incumbents.
· Changing World Order x Ray Dalio
The best global macro investor of our lifetime believes that the world is changing in profound ways right now. He argues that the biggest trends that he’s noticed in his lifetime, globally, were things that happened many times before but a very long time ago. In order to anticipate these trends, he studied history and historical trends. Studying the Great Depression of the 1930s, assisted him with anticipating the 2008 Global Financial Crisis.
Ray has once again noticed that there are three things that haven’t happened in our lifetimes that are happening right now:
– The hitting of zero interest rates > The production of a lot of debt > The production of a lot of money > Monetization of the debt
– Amount of internal conflict (USA):
o Political Gaps (largest since 1900s)
o Wealth Gaps (largest since 1930s)
– The rise of China and decline of the U.S.
I find Ray’s breakdown of the Changing World Order very interesting as he deep dives into the Changing World Order in his latest book; probably amongst the most important reads on the economy going into the next decade. I wouldn’t take his understanding of cause and effects for granted – he’s goated!
· Work (From Home/In-Office/Hybrid)
When my favorite Proptech startup “ParkUpp” rebranded to “Troob” to expand from just parking to creative spaces, places & faces, I was fascinated. Their transition from connecting parking owners with potential users, to letting space owners monetize their space by matching them to creatives looking for flexible and unique spaces, was amongst the best pivots I witnessed in 2021. In addition to transitioning, they managed to venture into the U.S. market, making them more than just a South African startup but a global one.
The rise in demand for cool workspaces is a clear indication that work from home is here to stay. Most people just need a spot to work from that isn’t home from time to time – it seems ideal for workers that have the option of working in-office or at home to go with the hybrid option, too much of anything is just bad…
Lifestyle and Healthcare
· Convergence of…
§ Bio & Tech
The overarching sentiment around merging healthcare with tech will change majorly in 2022. The limitations in the healthcare system that we began to notice during the pandemic around PPE and most importantly the vaccine rollout and efficacy were worrisome. I think we’ll continue to see a rise in startups innovating in the healthcare space to improve supply chain processes as well as decentralize access to important healthcare related information. We’re also bound to see a rise in the adoption of alternative healthcare techniques to deal with Covid such as CRISPR gene editing – which I for one, am here for!
§ AI & Human
In 2021 Neuralink implanted a chip in the brain of a rhesus macaque (monkey) named Pager who was able to play Pong using thought signals. I believe this was a glimpse into what we should expect in 2022. I’ll point out the obvious, in 2022 Neuralink will implant a chip in the brain of a human. I’m looking forward to the possibilities that this may unlock.
· The beginning of the end for…
§ Legacy Media
Traditional media houses are in big trouble – the industry has been dominated by a reporting culture that’s been largely characterized by virtue signaling either promoting a progressive left or an alt right narrative. It’s very difficult to come across a media house that is promoting an honest discourse; this is driving consumers towards independent individuals and organizations.
The only place that individuals can get access to reliable information is through independent researchers, reporters, writers, investigative journalists etc. Individuals that aren’t trying to push a narrative to entice a group of individuals.
At this point, I’m convinced that there are independent investigative journalists that are better than big news agencies like Fox News, CNN and the likes – look at Russel Brand’s platform and how that’s grown; all because of authenticity.
In 2022, the amount of people disregarding legacy media and gravitating towards independent creators on platforms likes YouTube and even paid content through Patreon will grow. A lot more communities will be built through Discords and Reddit. Creative writers will have a great opportunity to monetize their content through platforms currently pioneering new business models to accommodate great writers such as Substack with newsletters and Medium with blogs.
§ Coffee Shops
The modern-day consumer is becoming more health conscious and less prone to trends. I just think the sentiments changed and most people are over the idea of a morning coffee – or at least the ones that are probably own a decent coffee maker. It’s not even cool to work from a coffee shop anymore. We have amazing shared working spaces now. Also, there are so many healthier alternatives to a morning coffee from a coffee shop – a healthy breakfast smoothie, tea or even water (Fiji water if you bougee like that) …It’s not looking good for coffee shops!
§ Gaming Consoles
Gaming from an actual console is slowly becoming obsolete – a preference thing now for most Millennials and the oldest cohort of Gen Zs. I wouldn’t say demand for PlayStation and XBOX has deteriorated, but it clearly hasn’t grown. It continues to survive due to the pricing and ease of use but I don’t think this will suffice in the long term.
The shift towards phones and streaming services for gaming is a signal around how the gaming market will look like in a few years – I’m excited to see the many innovations that will come out of gaming in 2022!
§ Visa & MasterCard
When you think of a duopoly, the first to come to mind will always be Visa and MasterCard – they’ve grew from strength to strength for a very long time now but I believe they’ve peaked and are experiencing the popular conundrum called the innovators dilemma. These companies have become too big to effectively innovate and compete with new entrants innovating in payments.
Visa bought their first ‘CryptoPunk’ NFT in 2021; a showing of intention to be involved in the Decentralized Finance (DeFi) revolution and a clear signal that there is value in the DeFi space – that’s all there is to it though, they’re a player in the sport, not the team, and definitely not the coach.
The same way Kodak had to succumb to Instagram, Nokia to Blackberry and then Blackberry to the iPhone, Internal Combustion Engines succumbing to Electric Cars right now is the exact same way this will play out. Visa & Mastercard can play a small part in the DeFi revolution but they can’t and won’t dominate the next payment revolution.
· Tesla Dominance
Tesla’s unassailable lead in the EV space will become even clearer in 2022. According to data from the China Passenger Car Association – Tesla sold a record number of China made (Tesla Shanghai factory) vehicles in December; consumers bought 70847 Tesla’s, the highest monthly rate since Tesla began manufacturing in Shanghai in late 2019.
These are interesting numbers because if we annualize the vehicles sold in December, we’re sitting at an estimated 850 000 cars sold in China alone. In 2021 Tesla sold approximately 936 000 vehicles globally – if we add all the factories in our forecast, we can only imagine the amount of cars Tesla will sell in 2022. What we do know though, is that production capacity will most likely more than double globally.
Tesla have basically achieved the most difficult assignment in manufacturing – achieving Economies of Scale. That also means it’s a lot easier for Tesla to mass produce existing models. This can also be attributed to the acceleration of Tesla’s manufacturing capabilities caused by Tesla’s revolutionary vertically integrated business model. I believe this is the biggest barrier incumbents and new entrants in the EV space need to overcome; which could be an assignment that may take years. In the meantime, Tesla will continue to dominate.
Tesla’s biggest flex has got to be the fact that the Model S, Model X and Model 3 have achieved the lowest probability of injury of any vehicle tested by the U.S. government’s New Car Assessment Program. Also, according to the latest Tesla Vehicle Safety Report, Tesla are able to use billions of miles of real-world data from their global fleet to improve their safety standards. More than 1 billion miles have been driven with the autopilot feature engaged; this is done to understand different ways accidents can happen and in-turn over-the-air software updates are introduced to enhance safety.
Mind you, I haven’t gone into Tesla’s energy business – potential to license out software to other EV manufacturers or even the potential launch of a fleet of robotaxis and autonomy. It’s very clear that Tesla has Waymo (excuse the pun) full self-driving data than any of their closest competitors. In 2022 it will become even clearer that there is currently no competition in the EV space; it’s basically Tesla and the rest.
· Cannabis
Instadose Pharma is a fully licensed grower and cultivator of Medicinal Cannabis for export. They were established in 2017 in extension with a ground-breaking deal with the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) which allowed them to become the sole exporter of medical cannabis from the country. The company recently completed a record shipment of over 2tonnes of medical cannabis from South Africa to Macedonia in the 4th Quarter of 2021. This boosted hopes that the African Cannabis market will be worth more than $7bn annually by 2023.
In a recent study published by the Journal of Nature Products – researchers found that compounds found in hemp – cannabigerolic acid (CBGA) and cannabidiolic acid (CBDA) – were identified as having potential to combat coronavirus.
This serves as a clear indication that cannabis is continuing to gain mainstream adoption and this will continue to grow in 2022 – I just hope that Africans are as visible and involved as Africa in the fast-growing sector.
· Buying Land on The Metaverse
In 2022, the opportunity cost of buying land on the planet will be buying land on the internet. Identifying the most lucrative platforms to purchase land on is probably the most rigorous task in this regard – the battle of the metaverse is real. Adidas partnered with pre-eminent NFT project Bored Ape, H&M became the first-ever retail clothing store to feature in a metaverse when they launched their 3D store on CEEK City, Nike acquired virtual sneaker company RTFKT and Samsung recently launched a metaverse virtual store on Decentraland. Perhaps we will visit different metaverses for different virtual experiences; that’s how the space seems right now – although there’s so much uncertainty surrounding the space, what’s clear is the fact that it’s a new reality and is here to stay.
Buying land on the metaverse is going to become as popular if not more popular than buying actual land in 2022 – stay tuned for that!
· Space Travel
2021 was a great year for space exploration and travel; first it was Richard Branson flying to the edge of space with his crew in the Virgin Galactic passenger rocket plane and then a few days later, Jeff Bezos rocket company Blue Origin launched into space with four people including himself and his brother. Elon Musk’s SpaceX achieved an even more amazing feat when they sent private client Jared Isaacmen (CEO of Shift4 Payments) to space alongside 3 other people on his Inspiration4 initiative aimed at raising awareness and funds for St.Jude Children’s Reseach Hospital, and to begin “a new era for human spaceflight and exploration”. There’s a documentary on Netflix that covers the training, launch and even landing of the Inspiration4 crew.
There is a clear shift towards space tourism becoming mainstream – Virgin Galactic currently has more than 600 reservations at US$ 250 000 each. My hope is that access to space is democratized and overtime the cost of space travel to decrease substantially.
2022 will even be a greater year for space exploration and travel – the most amazing thing that could happen is SpaceX achieving full reusability with their Starship (Previously called Big Falcon Rocket [BFR]); that will revolutionize the space industry and even create greater possibilities for space travel.
· Vegan Movement
The vegan movement is about to experience a sharp rise or a steady decline. The movements been embedded on guilt-tripping individuals into believing that they’re cruel for consuming animals and animal product for to long. I believe the biggest problem with the movement has been their inability to create and offer better alternatives to these products. For someone who went vegan (out of curiosity) for over a year, I think the products that are good enough to compete with animal products are too expensive. Quick example, I never switched back to dairy when I stopped my plant-based diet because I found almond milk to be great – I pay almost 4x the cost of a similar sized dairy carton; this is true across the board and needs to change.
In 2022, if the guilt-tripping isn’t accompanied by innovative products that are affordable and actually taste good, it’s going to be very difficult for the vegan movement to sustain itself any longer…
Tech
· Palantir
“We are going to be the most important software company in the world.”
– Palantir co-founder and CEO Alex Karp
When it comes to software, I believe Palantir are at the forefront. Their approach is building dedicated software products for their clients and partners five years before the world needs them. The three things I find most interesting about Palantir is:
– Their obsession with data and figuring out the most innovative ways to assist their clients and partners with protecting their data as well as sorting through it to come up with valuable insights.
– Having a wide range of offering across all industries – that makes it easier for them to apply key learnings from different industries that are complementary.
– Being a value driven company with clear intentions – it rejects work with U.S. global adversaries; one of Palantir’s stated goals is “becoming the default operating system across the US government.”
If you’ve ever followed Palantir co-founder Peter Theil – or at least made an effort to try and study his train of thought (Zero to One) – you’d probably know he has a ‘winner takes all’ as opposed to ‘winners take some’ kind of approach to business. He argues that founders should aim for a monopoly and avoid competition. The approach that Palantir is taking makes so much sense once you understand this.
Palantir is the 2022 tech stock of the year pick.
· Founder CEOs Stepping Down
Jeff Bezos stepping down as Amazon CEO in 2021 to focus more on his space company Blue Origin, fighting climate change and overseeing The Washington Post. He was soon followed by Twitter CEO Jack Dorsey who decided to leave because Twitter is “ready to move on from its founders.” I believe this will become a growing trend in 2022 and we will see more first-generation tech founders step down and focus on other endeavors.
For the first time in Tesla’s history, CEO Elon Musk did not take part in the last company’s earnings conference call in 2021 – I think these are the building blocks to Elon eventually passing the baton in a year or two. He is basically preparing investors for earnings calls without him.
The complexities that surround running a start-up and scale-up are very different from the challenges that these founders are faced by when their companies become big. It’s become clear now that more first-generation CEOs that emerged from the 2000 tech bubble are going to step down.
· Stripe IPO
The highly anticipated Initial Public Offering (IPO) of all time is happening in 2022. The self-proclaimed payments infrastructure for the internet Stripe is set to break e-commerce giant Alibaba’s record of a market value of US$231 billion (set on the 19th of September 2014 on the New York Stock Exchange) to become the largest IPO in world history.
· Meta (Facebook) begins to lose Metaverse race
Facebook recently announced that their changing their name to Meta in efforts to be a core part of the next evolution of social connection – the company’s vision has become “bringing the metaverse” to life. They had this fun presentation that Zuckerberg led going around Meta’s version of the Metaverse – I wasn’t convinced and I’m not even a techie. It’s all hopium!
The move by Facebook seems very smart at face value, but it’s not; it takes more than just a futuristic name and uncompelling presentation to takeover an industry. You need to create real value in the space in question. From my non-technical standpoint, the real value is being created on DApps (Decentralized Applications) that use Ethereum and other blockchain-based platforms.
Mind you, everything that’s been mentioned on this paper thus far around DeFi (Visa purchasing CryptoPunk NFT) and The Metaverse (H&M 3D store on CEEK City, Adidas partnering with pre-eminent NFT project Bored Ape, Samsung’s recently launched virtual store on Decentraland, and Nike acquiring virtual sneaker company RTFKT) all have one thing in common – Ethereum; not the Facebook Marketplace!
Crypto
The cryptocurrency space is still very frothy right now but in 2022 the many small bubbles (NFTs, shitcoins, DAOs, DApps, Metaverse etc.) will burst and the market will consolidate. This will happen because I believe that institutions responsible for regulating the space are going to double down and layout proper regulations to manage the market in 2022. This will create a firm conviction among market participants and change the market sentiment to a more optimistic one It will, however, be followed by a period of market consolidation characterized by many pseudo-projects hitting zero and becoming non-existent, as well as major projects gaining more adoption and going to the moon.
Once the powers that be make the regulations clear, we’ll probably witness the beginning of CBDCs (Central Bank Digital Currencies) issued by different central banks meant to compete with existing cryptocurrencies.
Bitcoin will be the biggest benefactor of the clear regulatory landscape due to its growth over the years and solid reputation (has never been hacked in its >10year existence); gaining more institutional adoption, accepted by more countries as legal tender and it’ll also gain more mainstream adoption.
§ Ethereum
2022 Ethereum will actually kill “Ethereum Killers” and officially become the GOAT!
Now Ethereum is something special… At its inception, contrary to the popular approach, the Ethereum community chose decentralization first and scalability later – a major decision that is beginning to pay off. The Ethereum community will solve security and scalability this year – users of Ethereum are going to be able to move their activity from layer 1 to layer 2 and in turn experience substantially lower costs over time when transacting.
In the near future “login with Ethereum” will become the default like “login with Google” and the likes are right now – the difference is your identity will not be owned by a centralized service in the future, it will follow you.
Needless to once again state the fact that everything that’s been mentioned on this paper thus far around DeFi (Visa purchasing CryptoPunk NFT) and The Metaverse (H&M 3D store on CEEK City, Adidas partnering with pre-eminent NFT project Bored Ape, Samsung’s recently launched virtual store on Decentraland, and Nike acquiring virtual sneaker company RTFKT) all have one thing in common – Ethereum!
Maybe the flippening is upon us…
Something interesting happened during the 2021 festive season, on the Beacon Chains birthday in December, creator of Ethereum Vitalik Buterin posted a roadmap diagram on Twitter outlining where Ethereum protocol development is at and upcoming features in the specific order. The Ethereum roadmap has never been clearer.
The five different work streams are:
– The Merge [Full transition from proof of work to proof of stake]
– The Surge [Massive scalability for rollups through sharding]
– The Verge [Stateless clients making Ethereum nodes easier to run]
– The Purge [Eliminating Technical Debt and Historical Data]
– The Splurge [Miscellaneous but important extras / The real fun begins…]
“Eth is the ETF for internet culture”
– Jack Butcher (@jackbutcher) on Twitter
Africa
· The African Genome
With most published research findings pointing at Africa as the continent with the most human genetic diversity, I’m confident that we’re about to see the representation of Africans in genomic studies grow.
54gene an African health technology platform in the genomics space was recognized by CB Insights among the Most Innovative Digital Health Startups of 2021and Business Insider listed the startup among biotech startups set to takeoff in 2022.
54gene will make groundbreaking strides in Africa in 2022 and is the best positioned to unlock scientific discoveries as well as improve diagnostic and treatment outcomes in Africa. This could be interesting times for African healthcare.
· African Independent Creatives and Streaming Platforms
African consumers are becoming more open to adopting new models to support artists. The cryptocurrency and web3 revolution have unlocked major opportunities for African startups to pioneer new ways (business models) to support African creatives through innovative means like NFTs.
In 2022, we’ll most likely witness a technology startup that will come out of Africa with the intention of supporting African creatives – this is going to be big and will disrupt existing international platforms majorly.
· Record breaking year for…
§ Female founders
According to a study around funding raised by start-ups in Africa in 2021 administered by Africa: The Big Deal, they found that female single founders and female-only founding teams had raised less than 1% of the total raised on the continent. I have absolutely nothing to say about this accept the fact that it is disappointing and backward. African women consistently prove that when the playing field is leveled, they are unmatched. I’ll put my super optimistic hat on and bet on this number increasing tenfold in 2022. African female founders will set new funding records and consistently go from strength to strength.
§ Unicorns
As infants in the startup and tech ecosystem, it’s quite awesome and mentally fulfilling to see African startups gain unicorn status. In 2021 a cohort of African startups gained unicorn status, these included Nigerian tech firm Andela (matches African software developers with other emerging markets), Nigerian international payments company Flutterwave, African cross-border venture Chipper Cash, eLearning platform Go1 became South Africa’s first Unicorn and Senegal-based mobile money provider Wave raised the biggest ever Series A round in Africa to become Francophone Africa’s first unicorn.
We’ll have more than five African startups achieving unicorn status in 2022 alone – this will be an amazing feat for the African entrepreneurial ecosystem and new “African unicorn” record.
My 3 top picks for unicorn status in 2022 are all Fintech plays – Africa’s first actual neobank Eversend, South Africa’s high tech high touch digital bank TymeBank and Nigeria’s free digital only bank Kuda. Honorable mention to African biotech startup 54gene.
Popular Culture
· Podcasts Bubble
I don’t know if it’s the pandemic or just a general shift in the type of content that people prefer consuming but the podcasting space grew substantially in 2021. It was more like a podcast bubble, way more than enough to consume around the same subject matter.
In 2022, the subject matter really begins to matter and the noise will just pass – basically the space will consolidate and then continue to grow.
· “Amapiano to the World!”
Confident that we’ve finally cooked up something that will catapult our cultural significance globally, Amapiano did not receive the recognition many believed it deserved in 2021. The growth and impact of the music genre that emerged from South Africa was noticeable, it made waves in Africa, Europe, The Middle East and a few other regions but it failed to break into the U.S. dismally.
It’s important for Amapiano artists to get a stake of the U.S. market, the U.S. has a very large population capable of shifting popular culture. Besides the appropriation by Jorja Smith that was called out accordingly, I don’t think the U.S. embraced Amapiano as much as we thought they would. When Afrobeats broke into the world it was big in the U.S. When Drake featured Wizkid on Views, Afrobeat became global; it was kind of sad not seeing an Amapiano feature on Certified Lover Boy.
2022 Amapiano breaks into the U.S. or it was never “Amapiano to the World!”
· Gen Z and Millennial investing culture takes a knock!
“Markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent”
– John Maynard Keynes
Most Millennials and Gen Zs were too young to properly witness and/or understand the Global Financial Crisis of 08’. That means most Millennial and Gen Z investors don’t have the investing psychology or mental fortitude to deal with a major financial market crash.
For a cohort heavily involved with crypto projects with no fundamental value and investing in stocks they hear and learn about in subreddits, the level of irrational exuberance is scary. A clear lack of understanding around the real long-term drivers of the market – trying to consistently time the market as opposed to taking their time to find great opportunities, do their research and actually spend time in the market.
Everyone is a great investor during a bull run but in 2022 the fakes will get exposed because some things will go down way quicker than they went up…
· European Super League
Contrary to popular belief, I don’t think the idea to launch a major professional footballing sporting league was absurd and has completely failed. I think as football fans we downplay the influence that business has on sport. If you actually look back to the founding of the UEFA champions league, it becomes clear that there is a major capitalistic side to football that usually wins. The footballing business is run by private corporations with a profit motive; if the business makes sense, be rest assured it’s probably happening.
In 2022, the European Super League board led by Real Madrid and Barcelona presidents Florentino Perez and Joan Laporta will make a comeback that is more calculated and considers fans – whether or not this works out is a big question but I’m confident that the comeback is happening.
· Ye Bridging the Gap
For the most part luxury/high-end fashion brands have been very niche and catered for the one-percenter; Ye is about to change that. Ye, also known as Kanye West, is bridging the gap between mainstream and high-end fashion through his partnership with Gap in collaboration with Demna (the creative director of Balenciaga).
With the two creative giants having joined forces, what does this mean?
The accessibility of luxury fashion to a wider range of consumers – great for the culture. A more inclusive fashion industry is great for fashion enthusiasts and supporters alike, who can’t necessarily afford to buy luxury fashion pieces – this is Ye’s ultimate goal with his 10 year partnership with Gap; keen to see how this unfolds…
· Drake and Kanye West
The two biggest superstars of our generation finally patched things up and squashed their beef in November 2021. This was short after they both dropped their projects Certified Lover Boy and Donda respectively. Towards the end, the feud was kind of wild to me; prior to the albums dropping the two had little brawls – obviously the intention was to promote their respective albums. Soon after the albums dropped, hip-hop mogul J Prince stepped in to calm the storm – passing a message of peace to Kanye West from Larry Hoover (former gang leader sentenced to life in prison). Kanye West than decided to reach out to Drake to squash the beef and for the duo to host an iconic “Free Larry Hoover concert.”
This is where it gets very interesting – once the beef was squashed and they decided to actually have the concert, Kanye went all in at the concert performing classics from The College dropout and Yeezus in addition to some new records. Drake however didn’t perform a single classic or even properly show up – his performance was mid; something I believe was intentional, he even performed “No Friends In The Industry” a clear subliminal shot to Kanye. I think the truth is Drake and Kanye have become too big and their careers have become to intertwined to genuinely have a fulfilling relationship.
They can however tolerate each other and they both understand the magnitude of their impact. It might be a stretch but for that reason I believe Drake and Kanye West are going to bless fans with a non-secular collab album in 2022.
Also, 2022 is the year Drake finally passes the baton to the new global pop superstar (icon) Doja Cat – I would’ve loved it if Lil Baby or Tyler or Cordae or even Baby Keem took the baton but Doja is eating everyone up, trust me!
· Person of the year 2022
This should be an easy pick, obviously Elon Musk but because he crushed 2021 the bar is a bit too high for him and it would most likely spark controversy if he became person of the year for two years running. My money is on Vitalik Buterin, the co-founder of Bitcoin Magazine and creator of Ethereum – he is amongst the smartest living human beings and is bound to crush it in 2022; I think his reserved personality will work against him though, the award is usually bestowed to outgoing individuals. Maybe they’ll figure out that giving it to Tech individuals for two years running isn’t smart and then go with an environmental activist or a woman instead.
What a time to be alive; crocs, diversification being for idiots, companies that pay out dividends being backward, the decline of fast fashion, the rise of stablecoins, Clubhouse vs Twitter space vs Callin, celebrity boxing, Code vs Low-Code vs No-Code and so many other hot topics that we left out.
The approach to picking and choosing the ideas was random, so the likelihood of missing some important idea or getting an idea completely wrong is high – there was no in-depth research that was done on any of the themes; just high-level takes, byyyeee…
We would love to hear some of your thoughts and ideas, reach out!